A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
